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The common mistakes every sports gambler should avoid
Chasing losses
Anybody who has bet on sports for an extended period will tell you that losing streaks happen. A common response to bad luck is a desperate attempt to reverse those fortunes. That is where you can get into trouble.
“If you’re betting the NFL and you do poorly in the 1 p.m. slate and poorly in the 4 p.m. slate, there are a lot of people who can’t resist making an even bigger bet on the Sunday night game to try and get it back,” said Drew Dinsick, lead analyst for NBC Sports EDGE. “In reality, by the time that game starts, there is no advantage bet to be made. You are truly flipping a coin.”
If the losses are piling up, usually the best option is to stop, recalibrate and wait for another day. Holes can be dug quickly in the world of sports betting.
“I always tell people that [betting] is great fun but, like everything else, do it in moderation,” said Michael Jenkins, co-host of “The Daily Tip,” a betting podcast from BetMGM. “It’s like having a beer while you’re watching a game. You want to sit back, enjoy the game, and have a couple to enhance the experience. But you don’t want to do so much that it becomes a problem or takes away from the spirit of enjoying the action.”
Betting on your favorite team
When it comes to sports betting, plenty of people rely on the “eye test” — essentially, they make wagers based on what they believe will happen from having watched certain teams play. And it’s true that most professional bettors encourage others to stay away from sports they don’t watch. However, recreational bettors can fall victim to feeling overconfident in their assessments of a team’s performance — particularly as it relates to their favorite teams.
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“I would encourage people to bet on teams they think they know well, yes,” said Rob Pizzola, a professional bettor and the co-owner of bet tracking company betstamp. “With that said, sports betting is a math problem. And it’s much less appealing to people when you put it that way. … When you bet on your favorite teams, people start to think in terms of [emotion].”
Nothing feels worse than watching your favorite team fall while also losing money at the same time. But one that might come close is betting against your favorite team and then watching it prove you wrong. Jenkins, a Texas alum, remembers a time he chose to bet against his Longhorns and then had to watch them upset hated rival Oklahoma.
“Afterward I remember thinking, ‘I feel disgusting right now,’ ” he said. “ ‘I never want to do this again.’ ”
Being tempted by parlays
At this point, you’ve likely seen a social media post or a news story about a fan who bet $10 on a complex, multigame wager and walked away with a small fortune. Those huge, unlikely wins are a scintillating part of sports betting and are heavily promoted in the field’s marketing.
But parlay bets, in which you link together two or more bets to try to win a large sum, are widely seen as a mistake.
“It’s definitely the biggest temptation there is,” Jenkins said. “We’ve all done it. And usually if you do it long enough, you’ll win a parlay or two. But there’s a reason why the sportsbooks themselves are promoting these huge viral wins. Every now and then you may want to take a shot, but if you try it on a regular basis, it’s a guaranteed loser.”
The sportsbook’s hold is generally much greater on parlay bets than single game wagers. That means the house keeps a higher percentage of every dollar wagered. When it comes to parlays, sportsbooks hold a significant edge.
“If somebody wants to bet for fun and is excited by the possibility of a big payout, fine. Who am I to tell them not to do that?” Pizzola said. “But it’s about understanding that, as you start to parlay games, the sportsbook’s edge becomes greater. It’s exactly what they want you to do.”
Sticking to one sportsbook
This is a mistake often made because of a lack of time or effort. Many bettors stick with one sportsbook, meaning they are at the mercy of the lines set by that outlet. By considering multiple sportsbooks, you can ensure you’re getting the best odds available.
“By opening up multiple sportsbook accounts, you can start line-shopping, which I think is the single most important aspect of this for winning bettors,” Pizzola said. “By finding the best price available to them and betting it, they have a much better chance to win in the long run.”
Think of line-shopping the same way as looking for the best price on any other product, and the strategy becomes even clearer.
“It’s just price sensitivity,” Pizzola said. “People are price sensitive in their day-to-day lives anyway. … If you could go to a gas station that’s selling gas for much cheaper and it’s the exact same product, they would do that. But for some reason or another, that hasn’t transpired in sports betting enough.”
Similarly, many experts — including The Post’s Neil Greenberg — say most recreational bettors simply wait too long. If you don’t place your bet until game day, “you’re betting into a number that the sportsbook is extremely confident in,” Pizzola noted. Betting earlier in the week, before the sportsbook has sharpened its lines, is a better strategy.
Having the wrong mind-set
Bettors often approach the whole venture in the wrong frame of mind. Too many fans get into betting with the hopes of turning their passion and knowledge into quick and easy cash. That will only set you up for disappointment.
“There are a lot of people who enter the space looking to get rich doing this,” Dinsick said. “The mind-set of people who think they’re going to get into this and it’s really going to impact their lives to the good financially is a pretty common mistake.”
Keep in mind that anything above a 55 percent success rate on your bets is considered highly profitable — and that kind of number is rare and hard-earned.
“Every single person I know who is making money doing this went through an extended period of losing. You almost have to pay that toll,” Dinsick said. “As is true in many fields, you’re not going to learn how to do this by reading about it. You have to put money at stake and lose and learn the hard way to truly grow as a sports bettor.”
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