Ikigo gishinzwe ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda (NISR) cyatangaje izamuka ry’ibiciro mu mijyi mu Ukwakira 2022 ryageze kuri 20,1% ugereranyije Ukwakira 2021, ahanini bitewe n’ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 39,7%.

Ni izamuka ry’ibiciro rikomeje kwibasira isi muri iki gihe kubera ingaruka zifitanye isano n‘icyorezo cya COVID-19, intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine n’umusaruro w’ubuhinzi ukomeje kutifata neza.

Igipimo ngenderwaho cyifashishwa mu bukungu bw’u Rwanda kiboneka hifashishijwe gusa ibiciro byakusanyijwe mu mijyi. Muri Nzeri 2022, ibiciro byari byiyongereyeho 17,6%.

NISR yatangaje ko mu Ukwakira 2022, "ibiciro byiyongereye bitewe ahanini n’ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byiyongereyeho 39,7%, ibiciro by’amazu, amazi, amashanyarazi, gazi n’ibindi bicanwa byiyongereyeho 8,9%, ibiciro by’ibijyanye n’ubwikorezi byiyongereyeho 13,6% n’ibiciro by’amacumbi n’amafunguro byiyongereyeho 18,6%."

Urebye mu byaro, mu Ukwakira 2022 ibiciro byiyongereyeho 39,2% ugereranyije n’Ukwakira 2021. Muri Nzeri 2022 byari byiyongereyeho 28,5%.

Isi ikomeje guhura n’izamuka rikabije ry’ibiciro, nyuma y’uko icyorezo cya COVID-19 cyari cyatumye bigwa cyane guhera mu 2020.

Iki cyorezo cyatumye ibikorwa byinshi bifungwa, abantu bategekwa kuguma mu rugo. Icyo gihe imipaka myinshi yarafunzwe, imodoka n’indege biraparikwa, ku buryo nta waguraga lisansi cyangwa mazutu, uretse wenda iyo gutuma moteri y’imodoka yakira mu rugo, ngo hato itagwa umugese.

Abantu bahahaga ibintu bike bijyanye n’amikoro ahari, kuko imirimo myishi yari yafunzwe. Muri icyo gihe ubukenerwe bw’ibicuruzwa buba buri hasi, bityo n’ibiciro bikaba hasi.

Abantu bamaze gukigirwa COVID-19, ubukungu butangiye gufunguka, ubukenerwe bw’ibicuruzwa by’ingenzi (commodities) bwarazamutse, nyamara umusaruro ntiwazamukana nabwo, habamo ukudahura kw’ibiboneka n’ibikenewe.

Ibi byatumye habaho izamuka ry’ibiciro ku rwego mpuzamahanga, ndetse Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda ihita izamura inyungu fatizo yayo ho iby’ijana 50 igera kuri 5%, ubu igeze kuri 6% .

Icyo gihe inama ngarukagihembwe ya Politiki y’Ifaranga yateranye ku wa 15 Gashyantare 2022, mu isesengura yemeje ko “ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa fatizo ku masoko mpuzamahanga birimo kuzamuka cyane bitewe n’izahuka ry’ubukungu ku isi.”

Ni nako byagenze bigeze ku bikomoka kuri peteroli kuko byahenze cyane, binagira ingaruka ku bijyanye n’ubwikorezi.

Mu gihe abantu bari batarahonoka ingaruka za mbere zatewe na COVID-19, intambara ya Ukraine yasutse peteroli mu muriro.

Ubwo yatangiraga na mbere y’uko ibihano byafatiwe u Burusiya bizamo, amarenga y’izamuka ry’ibiciro n’inzara ku isi yahise aba yose.

Iyi ntambara yatumye ikigega cy’ibiribwa ku isi gihubangana, kuko u Burusiya bwoherezaga mu mahanga 11% by’ifumbire ya Urée yose ku isi, na 48% bya nitrate d’amonium ikenerwa mu nyongeramusaruro.

U Burusiya na Ukraine biza imbere mu musaruro w’ubuhinzi cyane cyane uw’ibinyampeke, by’umwihariko sayiri (barley), ingano n’ibigori.

Byihariye 18% by’uwo musaruro hagati ya 2016/17 na 2020/21, aho u Burusiya bwari bufitemo 14 ku ijana, Ukraine ikagira 4 ku ijana.

Twongereho ko ibi bihugu byombi byihariye hejuru ya 50% by’umusaruro w’ibihwagari bivamo amavuta yo guteka biboneka ku isi. Mu 2021, Ukraine yohereje mu mahanga toni 5.1, u Burusiya bwohereza toni 3.1.

Uhuje ibinyampeke n’ibihwagari, uruhare rwa Ukraine n’u Burusiya mu musaruro w’isi rwari hafi kuri 72 ku ijana, nk’uko imibare ya FAO ibigaragaza.

Ku ruhande rw’u Rwanda, u Burusiya bwahoze ari isoko ya 64% by’ifarini y’ingano rukoresha, na 14% by’inyongeramusaruro.

Uretse mu Rwanda, mu bihugu bikoresha ifaranga rya Euro ibiciro byazamutse 10.7% mu Ukwakira, mu gihe muri Leta zunze ubumwe za Amerika ibiciro byazamutse kuri 8.2%, umubare waherukaga mu izamuka rikabije ryabayeho uhereye mu 1982.

Muri Turikiya ho byararenze kuko mu Ukwakira izamuka ry’ibiciro ryageze kuri 85.5% ku ijana, umubare waherukaga mu myaka 25 ishize.

Ibi bibazo byose kandi birimo kurushaho kugirwa bibi n’umusaruro w’ubuhinzi utaragenze neza mu mezi ashize kubera ibibazo by’imvura, ndetse hari ubwoba ko umusaruro uzarushaho kutaba mwiza mu bihe biri imbere, kubera ko nko mu bice byinsho by’u Rwanda omvura yabuze, cyangwa se irimo kugwa nabi.

Banki Nkuru y’u Rwanda iheruka kwemeza ko impuzandego y’izamuka ry’ibiciro izaba hejuru y’igipimo ntarengwa cya 8.0 ku ijana muri 2022-2023, mbere yo kumanuka muri 2023-2024, ikazasatira igipimo fatizo cya 5.0 ku ijana mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka wa 2023.

Icyakora, inavuga ko zimwe mu nzitizi zishobora gutuma iri teganyamibare ritagenda uko biteganyijwe, harimo uko umusaruro w’ubuhinzi uzagenda, ibiciro by’ibicuruzwa fatizo, ndetse n’umuvuduko w’izanzamuka ry’ubukungu kw’isi n’imbere mu gihugu.